Published Research

Prof. Harald Uhlig's research can also be found at:

Additional Research Resources


Year
Title
 PR
2020
 "COVID19 und VWL: was die okonomische Sicht beitragt," , April 17, 2020. "IMFS Website . "YouTube Video. [PDF] " N
2020
 "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic," joint with Dirk Krueger and Taojun Xie. CEPR Press, Covid Economics Issue 5, April 16, 2020. "Code. "YouTube Video. [PDF] " N
2019
 "Some Simple Bitcoin Economics," Linda Schilling and Harald Uhlig. Journal of Monetary Economics , Vol. 106, Oct 2019 [PDF] " N
2019
 "Interbank Rate Uncertainty and Bank Lending," Carlo Altavilla, Giacomo Carboni, Michele Lenza, Harald Uhlig. European Central Bank Working Paper Series No 2311 Aug 2019 [PDF] " N
2019
 "Currency Substitution under Transaction Costs," with Linda Schilling. This is a forthcoming paper in AEA Papers & Proceedings 109, Jan 2019 [PDF] " N
2018
 "A Theory of Pruning," with Giovanni Lombardo. International Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 4, Nov 2018 [PDF] " N
2018
 "Some Simple Bitcoin Economics," with Linda Schilling, in the Economics of Fintech and Digital Currencies eBook , Oct 2018 [PDF] " VOX CEPR Policy Portal home page for this article" N
2018
 "Blaupause fuer ein Deutsches Berkeley, Blueprint for a German Berkeley,"published in the German newspaper Die Welt, Nov 17, 2018 [PDF] " N
2018
 "The Dynamics Of Sovereign Debt Crises And Bailouts," with Francisco Roch, in the Economics of Fintech and Digital Currencies eBook, May, 2018 [PDF] " N
2017
 "Shocks, Signs, Restrictions, and Identification,"Cambridge University Press, Nov 2017, Advances in Economics and Econometrics Vol 1 and 2: Eleventh World Congress, edited by Bo Honoré, Ariel Pakes, Monika Piazzesi, Larry Samuelson[PDF] " N
2017
 "Business Cycles and International Trade,"Journal of Political Economy, 2017, Vol. 125, No. 6 [PDF] "The University of Chicago Press home page for this article" N
2017
 "The Past, Present, and Future of Economics: A Celebration of the 125-Year Anniversary of the JPE and of Chicago Economics," Journal of Political Economy, 2017, Vol. 125, No. 6 [PDF] "The University of Chicago Press home page for this article" N
2016
 "Financial Health Economics," with Ralph Koijen and Tomas Philipson, Econometrica, 2016, Vol. 84, No. 1 (January, 2016), 195-242. [PDF] N
2013
 "Outright Monetary Transactions und Target2," Zeitgespräch, 2013, pp. 443-444. [PDF] N
2013
 "Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Volume 15, Issue 1, 2013, pp. 23-41. [PDF] Y
2012
 "Agents as Empirical Macroeconomists: Thomas J. Sargent's Contribution to Economics," Scandanavian Journal of Economics, Volume 114, Issue 4, 2012, pp. 1055-1081. [PDF] N
2012
 "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," with Michael U. Krause, Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 59, Issue 1, January 2012, pp. 64-79. [PDF] Y
2011
 "Bank Finance versus Bond Finance," with Fiorella de Fiore, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43, No. 7, October 2011, pp. 89-93. [PDF] Y
2011
 "Bank Finance versus Bond Finance. Appendix (not for publication)," [PDF] Y
2011
 "The Laffer Curve Revisited," with Mathias Trabandt, Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 58, Issue 4, May 2011, pp. 305-327. [PDF] Y
2010
 "Some Fiscal Calculus," American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 2010, vol. 100(2), pp. 30-34. [PDF] N
2010
 "A Model of a Systemic Bank Run", Journal of Monetary Economics 57, pp. 78-96. [PDF] Y
2010
 "Monetary policy in Europe vs the US: what explains the difference?" in Jordi Gali and Mark J. Gertler, International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, NBER Books, NBER, May 2010, pp. 489-533. [PDF] N
2009
 "Comment on 'How has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission.' by Jean Boivin, Marc P. Giannoni, Benoît Mojon," in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Vol. 23, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp. 141-152. [PDF] N
2009
 "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," joint with Andrew Mountford, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 24, pp. 960-992. [PDF] Y
2008
 "The Slow Decline of East Germany," Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 36, Issue 4, pp. 517-541. [PDF] Y
2008
 "Working Paper: Approximate Solutions to Dynamic Models (Linear Methods)", entry in the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume eds., Palgrave Macmillan. [Link] N
2008
 "New Evidence on the Puzzles: Results from Agnostic Identification on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates", joint with Almuth Scholl, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 76, No. 1, pp. 1-13. [PDF] Y
2008
 "Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk", joint with Lans Bovenberg, in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, L. Reichlin and K. West, eds., NBER, University of Chicago Press, pp. 241-323. [PDF] N
2007
 "Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 97, No. 2, pp. 239-243. [PDF via JSTOR] N
2007
 "On the Coexistence of Banks and Markets", joint with Hans Gersbach, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, No. 2, pp. 225-243. [PDF] Y
2007
 "Should Smart Investors Buy Funds with High Past Returns?", joint with Frederic Palomino, Review of Finance, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 51-70. [LINK] Y
2006
 "Regional Labor Markets, Network Externalities and Migration: The Case of German Reunification", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 96, No. 2 (May), pp. 383-387. [PDF via JSTOR] N
2006
 "Debt Contracts and Collapse as Competition Phenomena," joint with Hans Gersbach, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Vol. 15, Issue 4, pp. 556-574. [PDF] Y
2006
 "Competitive Risk Sharing Contracts with One-Sided Commitment," joint with Dirk Krüger, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53, pp. 1661-1691. [PDF] Y
2005
 "Employment Duration and Resistance to Wage Reductions," joint with M. Burda, W. Güth and G. Kirchsteiger, Homo Oeconomicus, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 169-189. [PDF] Y
2005
 "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure", Journal of Monetary Economics 52, pp. 381-419. [PDF] Y
2005
 "Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area," joint with Emanuel Mönch, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 43-69. [PDF] Y
2004
 "Comment on 'Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy Under Imperfect Competition'.'' Journal of Macroeconomics 26, pp. 211-217. [PDF] N
2004
 "Comment on 'The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting,' by Andrew T. Levin, Fabio M. Natalucci, and Jeremy Piger," in The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August, Vol. 86, No. 4. Courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [PDF] N
2004
 "Kydland und Prescott: Die dynamische Makro," WISU - Das Wirtschaftsstudium December, pp. 1455-1457. [PDF] N
2004
 "Comment on 'Monetary Policy in Real Time' by Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin and Luca Sala," in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp. 201-215. [PDF] N
2004
 "Do Technology Shocks Lead to a Fall in Total Hours Worked?", Journal of the European Economic Association, April-May, Vol. 2, Nos. 2-3, pp. 361-371. [PDF] N
2004
 "The Monetary Policy Strategy of the ECB Reconsidered: Monitoring the European Central Bank 5," a CEPR Report, with Jordi Galí, Stefan Gerlach, Julio Rotemberg, Michael Woodford. [Preview only] N
2003
 "Working Paper: How Well Do We Understand Business Cycles and Growth? Examining the Data with a Real Business Cycle Model", in Franz, Wolfgang: Ramser, H.-J.; Stadler, M. (eds), Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung: Methoden und Anwendungen, vol 32, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Seminar Ottobeuren 2002, Ottobeuren, 09.2002; Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, pp. 295-319. [Preview only] N
2003
 "One Money, But Many Fiscal Policies in Europe: What are the Consequences?", in M. Buti, Monetary and Fiscal Policies in EMU, Cambridge University Press, pp. 29-56. N
2002
 "On Adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Observations," joint with Morten Ravn, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 371-76. [PDF] Y
2002
 "The Sharpe Ratio and Preferences: A Parametric Approach," joint with Martin Lettau, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 242-65. [Preview only] Y
2001
 "Review of Kenneth L. Judd, 'Numerical Methods in Economics'," Journal of Economic Methodology, Vol. 8, No. 3 [PDF] N
2001
 "Definining a Macroeconomic Framework for the Euro Area. Monitoring the European Central Bank 3," a CEPR report, with Alberto F. Alesina, Olivier J. Blanchard, Jordi Gali, and Francesco Giavazzi. [LINK] N
2001
 "The Role of National Central Banks and of Different Policy Cultures,", in Charles Wyplosz, ed., The Impact of EMU on Europe and the Developing Countries, WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford University Press, pp. 76-110. [Preview only] N
2000
 "Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management under Catching Up with the Joneses," with Lars Ljungqvist, American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 3, pp. 356-366. [PDF] Y
2000
 "Should we be Afraid of Friedman's Rule?" Journal for Japanese and International Economics, Vol. 14, pp. 261-303. [PDF] Y
2000
 "Can Habit Formation be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts?" with Martin Lettau, Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 3, pp. 79-99. [PDF] Y
2000
 "What is the Real Story for Interest Rate Volatility," with Andreas Hornstein, German Economic Review (inaugural issue) Vol. 1, Issue 1, pp. 43-67. [PDF] Y
1999
 "Rules of Thumb versus Dynamic Programming," with Martin Lettau, American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 1, pp. 148-174. [PDF] Y
1999
 "Fickle Investors: An Impediment to Growth?", with Andrew Scott, European Economic Review, No. 43, pp. 1345-1370. [PDF] Y
1999
 "Growth and the Cycle: Creative Destruction versus Entrenchment," with Erik Canton, Journal of Economics, Vol. 69, No. 3, pp. 239-266. [Original publication available is available at www.springerlink.com] Y
1999
 "An Analysis of the Stability Pact," with Roel Beetsma, The Economic Journal, October 1999, pp. 546-571. [Link via JSTOR] Y
1999
 "MECB Update. A CEPR report," with David Begg, Paul de Grauwe, Francesco Giavazzi, and Charles Wyplosz. [Preview only] N
1999
 "Working Paper: A Toolkit for Analysing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily," in Ramon Marimon and Andrew Scott, eds, Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies, Oxford University Press, pp. 30-61. N
1998
 "The Robustness of Identified VAR Conclusions About Money: A Comment", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series, Vol. 49, December 1998, pp. 245-263. [PDF] N
1998
 "Capital Income Taxation and the Sustainability of Permanent Primary Deficits," in Steven Brakman, Hans van Ees and Simon K. Kuipers, eds., Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling, Macmillan Press LTD, pp. 309-337. [PDF] This is a post-peer review, pre-copyedit version of the article published by CEPR and CentER for Economic Research, Tilburg University. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is published by Macmillan, Ltd. N
1998
 "Comment on 'Uncertainty, instrument choice, and the uniqueness of Nash equilibrium: microeconomic and macroeconomic examples'," by Dale W. Henderson and Ning S. Zhu," in: Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger and Harry P. Huizinga (Eds.), Positive Political Economy: Theory and Evidence, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 154-161. N
1998
 "The ECB: Safe at Any Speed? Monitoring the European Central Bank 1," A CEPR report, with David Begg, Paul de Grauwe, Francesco Giavazzi, Charles Wyplosz. [Preview only] N
1997
 "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Econometrica, Vol. 65, No. 1, pp. 59-73. [PDF via JSTOR] Y
1996
 "Increasing the Capital Income Tax May Lead to Faster Growth," with Noriyuki Yanagawa, European Economic Review, 40, pp. 1521-1540. [PDF] Y
1996
 "A Law of Large Numbers for a Large Economy," Economic Theory, Vol. 8, pp. 41-50. [PDF] Y
1995
 "Effort and the Cycle: A Short Summary," with Yexiao Xu, in P. Kleinschmidt, A. Bachem, U. Derigs, D. Fisher, U. Leopold-Wildburger, R. Moehring (eds.), Operations Research Proceedings 1995, Conference Volume, Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 235-240. [PDF of revised 1996 working paper version; official published version is available at www.springer.com] N
1994
 "Comments on 'Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility', by E. Jacquier, Polson and P. Rossi," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 410-412. [PDF reprinted with permission from the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. ©1994 by the American Statistical Association. All rights reserved.] N
1994
 "On Singular Wishart and Singular Multivariate Beta Distributions," Annals of Statistics, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 395-405. [PDF via JSTOR; ©1994 Institute of Mathematical Statistics. All rights reserved.] Y
1994
 "On Jeffrey's Prior When Using the Exact Likelihood Function," Econometric Theory, Vol. 10, Nos. 3/4, pp. 633-644. [Preview only] Y
1994
 "What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective," presented at the Yale-NSF Conference "Bayes Methods and Unit Roots", Econometric Theory, Vol. 10, Nos. 3/4, pp. 645-671. [Preview only] Y
1993
 "The Timing of Information in a General Equilibrium Framework," with Jonathan Berk, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 59, No. 2, pp. 275-287. [PDF] Y
1993
 "The Impact of Large Portfolio Insurers on Asset Prices," with Glenn Donaldson, Journal of Finance, Vol. 48, No. 5, pp. 1943-1956. [PDF via JSTOR] Y
1992
 "Erratum: Reasonable Extreme-Bounds Analysis," with Clive W.J. Granger, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 51, Nos. 1/2, pp. 285-286. [PDF] N
1992
 "Increasing the Capital Income Tax Leads to Faster Growth," extended abstract, Conference Volume, GMÖOR (Gesellschaft für Mathematik, Ökonomie und Operations Research), (September 1992, published 1993). N
1991
 "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," with Christopher A. Sims, Econometrica, Vol. 59, No. 6, pp. 1591- 1599. [PDF] Y
1990
 "Reasonable Extreme Bounds Analysis," with Clive W.J. Granger, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 44, No. 1/2, pp. 159- 170. [PDF] Y
1990
 "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods," with John B. Taylor, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 1-17. [PDF reprinted with permission from the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. ©1990 by the American Statistical Association. All rights reserved.] Y
1986
 "The Eigenfunctions of a Compact, Weighted Endomorphism," Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 98, No. 1, pp. 89-93. [PDF] Y