Research
Browse by theme
How the competitive interests of local and global firms shape, and undermine, economic cooperation.
How the design and operation of the GATT/WTO system reflect the political goals of leading governments.
How politicians evade accountability, and what oversight by courts, media, and lobbyists can and cannot do.
Farm payments, adjustment assistance, export subsidies, and the regional politics of economic decline.
Game-theoretic models and identification strategies for questions where the data are generated by strategic actors.
Books
- 2020 Narrowing the Channel: The Politics of Regulatory Protection in International Trade University of Chicago Press, 2020. DOI
- In progress Industrial Nostalgia: The Political Economy of Rust Belts Book manuscript in progress
- 2012 World Trade Report 2012: Trade and Public Policies A closer look at non-tariff measures in the 21st century. WTO, Geneva.
Journal Articles
- 2026 The Political Benefits of the Monoculture: Estimating the Electoral Effect of the Market Facilitation Program Journal of Public Economics, 261, 105742. A quirk in how USDA computed trade damages sent windfall payments to some counties and not others. Those counties swung toward Trump in 2020. Summary PDF DOI Subsidies, Compensation & RegionsFormal Theory & Causal Inference
- 2026 Backsliding under Contested Oversight Political Science Research and Methods, 1–21. When politicians can excuse misconduct, a careful overseer's caution makes every criticism sound like a witch hunt. Summary PDF DOI Project Syndicate: “The Trolling of American Democracy” Accountability & OversightFormal Theory & Causal Inference
- 2024 Electoral Rewards and Punishments for Trade Driven Compensation World Politics, 76(2). Trade Adjustment Assistance helps incumbents where import competition is severe and hurts them where it is not, which explains why governments keep compensation small. Summary PDF DOI Subsidies, Compensation & RegionsFormal Theory & Causal Inference
- 2024 The Multiplant Origins of the National Market Journal of Historical Political Economy, 3(4), 577–606. National flour millers with plants across regions turned laissez-faire executives into backers of the first systematic US export subsidies. Summary DOI Subsidies, Compensation & RegionsThe Trade Regime & Its HistoryFirms & Global Supply Chains
- 2023 Must Watch Propaganda: The Marginal Treatment Effect of Foreign Media among Always-Takers Political Science Research and Methods, 13(1), 132–149. Instrumental-variables recover effects for compliers, those moved by the instrument. Extending to the East Germans who sought out West German TV regardless of signal, the effect flips. Summary PDF DOI Replication data Formal Theory & Causal InferenceAccountability & Oversight
- 2022 WTO Subsidy Disciplines World Trade Review, 21(3), 330–341. Tariffs got scheduled, binding commitments. Subsidies got rules that try to sort legitimate from protectionist programs, and those rules are buckling. Summary PDF DOI The Trade Regime & Its HistorySubsidies, Compensation & RegionsFirms & Global Supply Chains
- 2022 The Arbitrage Lobby: Theory and Evidence on the Political Economy of Dual Exchange Rates International Organization, 76(1), 105–125. Chávez ran with a populist message. Judged by who got cheap dollars, he used commercial policy to help importers. Summary PDF DOI Firms & Global Supply ChainsAccountability & OversightFormal Theory & Causal Inference
- 2022 Negotiating Exclusion: Regulatory Barriers in Preferential Trade Agreements Economics & Politics, 34(1), 192–220. Uncertainty over rules of origin during the NAFTA talks deterred foreign automakers from investing in Mexico and handed market share back to the Big Three. Summary PDF DOI Firms & Global Supply ChainsThe Trade Regime & Its History
- 2022 Trading Away Tariffs: The Operations of the GATT System World Trade Review, 21, 135–158. Product-level data from the 1947 Geneva round show a United States that sought stability, not liberal crusade: it bound tariffs rather than cutting them. Summary PDF DOI The Trade Regime & Its History
- 2021 America and the Trade Regime: What Went Wrong? International Organization, 75(2), 524–557. American trade institutions were built to mute import-competing firms and workers. That design made US leadership possible and, decades later, made the backlash inevitable. Summary PDF DOI The Trade Regime & Its HistorySubsidies, Compensation & Regions
- 2020 Anticipating Exclusion: Global Supply Chains and Chinese Business Responses to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Business and Politics, 22(2), 253–278. Chinese managers facing exclusion from the TPP had already adjusted, and many welcomed the deal. Whether exclusion hurts depends on where a firm sits in the supply chain. Summary PDF DOI Firms & Global Supply ChainsThe Trade Regime & Its History
- 2019 The Globalisation Crisis: Populism and the Rise of an Anti-Trade Coalition European Review of International Studies, 6(3), 57–83. A panel of Americans surveyed through the Great Recession shows support for open markets was always shallow. Institutions built to ignore the losers could not respond when they organized. Summary PDF DOI The Trade Regime & Its HistorySubsidies, Compensation & Regions
- 2014 America and Trade Liberalization: The Limits of Institutional Reform International Organization, 68(2), 263–295. Delegating tariffs to the president in 1934 did not insulate Congress from protected industries. It let presidents pick which districts felt the pain, and when. Summary PDF DOI The Trade Regime & Its History
Book Chapters
- 2024 Unilateralism In Research Handbook on Unilateral Measures in Trade, Investment and Economic Law. Edward Elgar. A handbook chapter on unilateral trade measures and their uneasy place in a regime built on reciprocity. Summary The Trade Regime & Its History
- 2019 Structuring Participation: Public Comments and the Dynamics of US Trade Negotiations In Megaregulation Contested: Global Economic Ordering After TPP, edited by B. Kingsbury, D. M. Malone, P. Mertenskötter, R. B. Stewart, T. Streinz, and A. Sunami. Oxford University Press. How the public-comment process through which US trade negotiators solicit input structures who participates in negotiations like the TPP. Summary DOI The Trade Regime & Its HistoryFirms & Global Supply Chains
- 2017 Negotiating in the Early GATT: Norms, Rules and the US Tariff Schedule In Assessing the World Trade Organization: Fit for Purpose?, edited by M. Elsig, B. Hoekman, and J. Pauwelyn, 75–96. Cambridge University Press. How the norms and negotiating rules of the first GATT round shaped what the United States put on the table. Summary DOI The Trade Regime & Its History
- 2016 The Limits of International Reform in the United States and the Global Trade Regime In The Oxford Handbook of Historical Institutionalism, edited by O. Fioretos, T. G. Falleti, and A. Sheingate. Oxford University Press. A historical-institutionalist account of how US trade institutions, designed to shield policymakers from import-competing voices, locked in and foreclosed later remedies. Summary DOI The Trade Regime & Its HistorySubsidies, Compensation & Regions
Working Papers
- 2026 Lobbying as Auditing Working paper. PDF SSRN
- 2026 Carbon Leakage and the Global Supply Chain: The Trade Effects of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Working paper. PDF
- 2025 Tariffs for the Defense Industrial Base Working paper. PDF
- 2026 Mismeasured Cooperation: The Trans-Atlantic Origins of Reciprocity in Market Access Working paper. PDF
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