Oleg Urminsky

Professor of Marketing
University of Chicago, Booth School of Business
Twitter: @oleg.urminsky
Blog: Marginally Significant

Working Papers and Research in Progress

(Note: PR = contains pre-registered study, ASR = all studies reported.)

50. Pleskac, Timothy, Ellie Kyung, Gretchen Chapman and Oleg Urminsky (2021) "The practice-preference gap with peer review: A field study of single- vs. double-blind review." (PR, ASR)

49. Pertl, Sam and Oleg Urminsky (2021) "Everyday Emotions and Economic Preferences Around the Globe."

48. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2021) "Why Many Behavioral Interventions Have Unpredictable Effects in the Wild: The Conflicting Consequences Problem."
     (Book chapter).

47. Urminsky, Oleg and Abigail Bergman (2021) "The Masked Majority: Underprediction of Widespread Support For Covid-19 Safety Policies." (PR, ASR)
     Data and analysis code.

46. Banerjee, Akshina and Oleg Urminsky (2021) "The Language That Drives Engagement: A Systematic Large-scale Analysis of Headline Experiments."

45. Chen, Stephanie, Oleg Urminsky and Jiaqi Yu (2020) "We Do What We Are: Representation of the Self-Concept and Identity-Based Choice." (PR, ASR)
     Data and analysis code.

44. Banerjee, Akshina and Oleg Urminsky (2020) "What You Are Getting and What You Will Be Getting: Testing Whether Verb Tense Affects Intertemporal Choices ." (PR, ASR)

43. Kim, Hye-Young and Oleg Urminsky (2020) "The Different Roads Not Taken: Considering Dissimilar Foregone Alternatives Motivates Future Goal Persistence." (PR, ASR)

42. Urminsky, Oleg and Lucy Shen (2020) "High Chances and Close Margins: How Equivalent Forecasts Yield Different Beliefs." (PR, ASR)
     Data and analysis code.

41. Yang, Adelle and Oleg Urminsky (2019) "Giver's Impatience: A Self-Other Decision Model of Intertemporal Choices ." (PR, ASR)

40. Orhun, Yesim and Oleg Urminsky (2018) "Reverse Projection in Strategic Contexts."

39. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2018) "Figuring Out Preference or Balancing Out Effort: Do Inferences From Incentives Undermine Post-Incentive Motivation?" (ASR)

38. Urminsky, Oleg (2018) "Probability Distributions of Common Repeated Events Are Misestimated." (ASR)

37. Daljord, Oystein, Oleg Urminsky and Jose-Manuel Urteta (2017) "The Status Quo Theory of Depletion Does not Explain the Israeli Parole Decisions."

36. Chen, Stephanie and Oleg Urminsky (2017) "Not All (Brand) Changes Are Made Equal: Understanding Which Changes Impact Brand Loyalty." (ASR)

35. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2017) "The 'Mere Reminder' Effect of Salient Calorie Labeling." (ASR)

34. Urminsky, Oleg and Daniel Bartels (2017) "To Your Health: Connectedness to the Future Self Motivates Preventive Health Behaviors."

33. Molouki, Sarah, Daniel Bartels and Oleg Urminsky (2016) "Overlooking Decline: Remembered and Predicted Personal Development Diverge from Actual Longitudinal Change." (ASR)

32. Urminsky, Oleg, Christian Hansen and Victor Chernozhukov (2016) "The Double-Lasso Method for Principled Variable Selection."

31. Urminsky, Oleg and Indranil Goswami (2016)"Impatient to Achieve or Impatient to Receive: How the Goal Gradient Effect Underlies Time Discounting."

30. Urminsky, Oleg, Lilly Kofler and Adelle Yang (2015) "Outcome Neglect and Failures of Insight Undermine Utility Maximization."

29. Yang, Adelle, Oleg Urminsky and Chris Hsee (2014) "Eager to Help yet Reluctant to Give: How Pro-social Effort and Pro-social Choices Diverge." (ASR)

28. Yang, Yang, Oleg Urminsky, Christopher Hsee and Li Zhang (2014), "Quantifying Hedonic Durability."

27. Hamilton, Ryan and Oleg Urminsky (2013) "Inference not Reference: The Price Image Heuristic as an Alternative to Reference Price Theories."

Published Papers and Book Chapters

26. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2021) "Don't Fear the Meter: How Longer Time Limits Yield Biased Preferences for Flat Fee Contracts." (PR, ASR)
      Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 162, pp. 42-58.
     Data and analysis code.

25. Urminsky, Oleg (2020) "Incomplete Grounding: The Theory of Symbolic Separation is Contradicted by Pervasive Stability in Attitudes and Behavior"."
      Behavioral and Brain Sciences, forthcoming
     (Commentary on Lee & Schwarz (2020), " Grounded procedures: A proximate mechanism for the psychology of cleansing and other physical actions")

24. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2020) "More Time, More Work: How Non-diagnostic Time Limits Bias Estimates of Project Duration and Scope." (PR, ASR)
      Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 994-1008
     Data and analysis code.

23. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2020) "No Substitute for the Real Thing: The Importance of In-Context Field Experiments In Fundraising," (PR, ASR)
      Marketing Science, 39(6), pp. 1052-1070.

22. Molouki, Sarah, Stephanie Y. Chen, Oleg Urminsky, and Daniel M. Bartels (2020) "How Personal Theories of the Self Shape Beliefs about Personal Continuity and Transformative Experience,"
      Becoming Someone New: Essays on Transformative Experience, Choice, and Change, John Schwenkler and Enoch Lambert, Eds.

21. Urminsky, Oleg and Daniel Bartels (2019) "Identity, Personal Continuity, and Psychological Connectedness across Time and over Transformation,"
      Handbook of Research on Identity Theory in Marketing, A. Reed & M. Forehand, Eds., Elgar

20. Chen, Stephanie and Oleg Urminsky (2019) "The Role of Causal Beliefs in Political Identity and Voting," (PR, ASR)
      Cognition, Volume 188, 27-38.
     Data and analysis code.

19. Gilula, Zvi, Robert McCullough, Ya'acov Ritov and Oleg Urminsky (2019) "A Study into Mechanisms of Attitudinal Scale Conversion: A Stochastic Ordering Approach," (ASR)
      Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Volume 17, Number 3, Page 325.
     Runner-up, Dick Wittink Prize for best paper in QME

18. Yang, Adelle and Oleg Urminsky (2018) "The Smile-Seeking Hypothesis: How Immediate Affective Reactions Motivate and Reward Gift-giving," (PR, ASR)
      Psychological Science, Volume 29, Issue 8, Pages 1221-1233
     Data and analysis code.
     Media coverage: The Economist.

17. Bartels, Daniel, Reid Hastie and Oleg Urminsky (2018) "Decision Making Research Inside and Outside the Laboratory: The Roles of Descriptive and Causal Field Research, and Narrow Versus Broad External Validity,"
      Invited commentary, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 1, Pages 11-15

16. Urminsky, Oleg and Gal Zauberman (2017) "The Health Consequences of Intertemporal Preferences,"
      Handbook of Self-Control in Health and Wellbeing.

15. Urminsky, Oleg (2017) "The Role of 'Psychological Connectedness to the Future Self' in Decisions Over Time,"
      Current Directions in Psychological Science, Vol 26, Issue 1, pp. 34-39

14. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2017) "The Dynamic Effect of Incentives on Post-Reward Task Engagement: An Effort Balancing Account," (ASR)
      Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 146 (1), 1-19 [Lead Article]
     Data and analysis code.

13. Chen, Stephanie, Oleg Urminsky and Daniel Bartels (2016) "Beliefs about the Causal Structure of the Self-Concept Determine Which Changes Disrupt Personal Identity," (ASR)
      Psychological Science, Volume 27 (10), 1398-1406
     Data and analysis code.

12. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2016) "When Should the Ask Be a Nudge? The Effect of Default Amounts on Charitable Donations," (ASR)
      Journal of Marketing Research, Volume 53 (5), 829-846.
     Data and analysis code.

11. Zauberman, Gal and Oleg Urminsky (2016) "Consumer Intertemporal Preferences,"
      Current Opinion in Psychology, Volume 10 (August), 136-141

10. Urminsky, Oleg and Gal Zauberman (2016) "The Psychology of Intertemporal Preferences,"
      The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, G. Keren and G. Wu (Eds.), Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley and Sons

9. Yang, Adelle and Oleg Urminsky (2015), "The Foresight Effect: Local Optimism Motivates Consistency and Local Pessimism Motivates Variety," (ASR)
      Journal of Consumer Research, 42(3), 361-377 [Lead Article]

8. Bartels, Daniel and Oleg Urminsky (2015) "To Know and To Care: How Awareness and Valuation of the Future Jointly Shape Consumer Savings and Spending,"
      Journal of Consumer Research, Volume 41(6), 1469-1485.

7. Urminsky, O., Bartels, D., Giuliano, P., Newman, G., Puntoni, S. and Rips, L. (2014) "Choice and Self: How Synchronic and Diachronic Identity Shapes Choices and Decision Making,"
      Marketing Letters, September, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp 281-291

6. Shen, Luxi and Oleg Urminsky (2013) "Making Sense of Nonsense: The Visual Salience of Units Determines Sensitivity to Magnitude,"
      Psychological Science, March, Volume 24 (3), 297 - 304

5. Orhun, Yesim and Oleg Urminsky (2013) "Conditional Projection: How Own Evaluations Impact Beliefs about Others Whose Choices Are Known,"
      Journal of Marketing Research, Volume 50 (1), 111-124

4. Gordon, Brett, Mitchell Lovett, Ron Shachar, Kevin Arceneaux, Sridhar Moorthy, Michael Peress, Akshay Rao, Subrata Sen, David Soberman and Oleg Urminsky (2012), "Marketing and Politics: Models, Behavior, and Policy Implications,"
      Marketing Letters, Volume 48(2), 282-295

3. Bartels, Daniel and Oleg Urminsky (2011) "On Intertemporal Selfishness: The Perceived Instability of Identity Underlies Impatient Consumption,"
      Journal of Consumer Research, Volume 38 (1), 182-198
      Finalist, 2011 Einhorn Award

2. Urminsky, Oleg and Ran Kivetz (2011) "Scope Insensitivity and the 'Mere Token' Effect,"
      Journal of Marketing Research, Volume 48 (2), 282-295.

1. Kivetz, Ran, Oleg Urminsky, and Yuhuang Zheng (2006) "The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer Retention,"
      Journal of Marketing Research, Volume 43 (1), 39-58.
      Finalist, 2007 Paul Green Award
      Finalist, 2011 O'Dell Award
      Choiceology Podcast Interview