ࡱ>    !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root EntryF= Book CompObjj_VBA_PROJECTU= &=  !"#$&'() FMicrosoft Excel 5.0 WorksheetBiff5Excel.Sheet.59q   Worksheet WorksheetToolsTools SimToo&ls{Simu&lation TableIterative ProcessSIMTABLEDTabulates output from repeated recalculations of a simulation model.!0Itera&tive Process Combine RowsMARKOVVIteratively copies values to a state range from an update range, and tabulates output.!0f86b44038cb =dir3+SummaryInformation(%@N6,vVl,``H,dv`^2,`nvF`n6`nN6,dv`^.h,``n8vF`n`n(6^``n8N^,v.,v2F,,`d,,vZT,dv`^*,``n8`n`n$`2 ?X``n8,d``n8,dv`d^&,``n8`n`n$`2``n8,``n8``n8``n8$2``n8,``n8``n8,v&,v*d,nfF ,h,vF,h p,"~   `6^n\,,>,rrv,(,r rrr2,dl,r6 ?L,v\,h0,r ?,dr,dHl,,rb,, c]F? ?r2,r X2ı.?2,dv~^X,rrf2,dHr2P$rNv0 ?rP$ ?v\$4p$@6 J(rv @ ,f ,f,v~XF,dHr2P$rNv0 ?rP$ ?v$4p$6J( v,dHr2P$rNv0 ?rP$ ?v$4p$6J( n,rvrnbT,rrrrrn$rvrn2,`lrr$r$v0,,`lrr$rr$f2v,,h,v,h\  @rvtl($4p$(68J(8,rxrx,,vl,rx`t$,,, rfbr,, v~^~,`d,rvNtbrbr,rr,,vd@b6rNb,h,,v^,rr MbP?,,vd@b6rNb,h,,vN,hb$^brp$6  fV6&,FSELECT UPDATE RANGE$LFSelect a range containing formulas that compute the next state of the ,,, | 6l|l, l6|l|,`v,d,dv`^h,d`n,dv`^d\,`nvTvd@vd@ l6|(D`nl|,vd,`nd`0X`n,r`n,vh4,dv`^@J, ?`d`n$r$r2`n,v@,nfT ,h,vT,h p Dl|,,  r$4p$6N,R, 6J~J,J6|J,`~`|vt,bl,  Z,`Z:Td, 6J 6`~p: f* 6 6`|p f6J ,\,,dvz`~^,dvx`|^,`Z,p\N8,vzd@vxd@ 66\,vzd@vxd@6d,rdTl,v\d@vdd@rd ?Xv$4p$6(`z`xnt8\,,v\d@vdd@$4p$68`z`xnt8 "X=,,  r$4p$6N,,`vh`vd,  ,`p`vN, v,vvHZrv$l,dv~`^\,`d`~rvrl$v,rvt,rv`tv,`~`t`,bt,`~`t`~`tnh`~nd8,`~nh`t`~`tnh,v~\6,ndf ,h,v,h Th d  V,,,rfd,h,rvv d@4p$6pH(`$4p$P6@pP,h,v,hp @P`p,,,p b,dp, N1?wF?vd@4p$6pJR`$4p$P6@J(0pP@,ptp t j(0,h,v ,h $$0@P`p`n$``n8,dv`d^r,`n`n$``n8,``n8``n8,v,v8,nf. ,h,v.,hH,,, ~N~,`dp.  ~ 6^ n6N> ~n^N>,z,`v``v, v~8,`d,t`nN,v,dv`^,`n`n$``n8,dv`d^r,`n`n$``n8,``n8``n8,v,v8,nf. ,h,v.,h &   >N^n~,,`p`d`"N,`v`^,`r|,r|b2,```,`dl,r|b2,``` ,`d*,,`d,`` ,,v$,``d,f``,`dv``^x>,`` `,``,vx,```v`^t&,` `,vt,`d,,```d (,`dH,f`d`,,`d,,`d`` (,`dH,f`d`,,LL d,,F, vNv,4p$v6f6V 66`pF &4p$666 6vfV6d,NORMIZE array requires ` rows x 1 column.|,h,,`v`v`v`v`v,dv`^,vd@ $4p$6 RX,`d,``n,vd@ 6`n*,, ...`n8,,v ,vvvd`v,dv`^t,`nf`0t$4p$6H`nn8,v,nf ,h,v,h d," `   <<&6Vfv`n8$2``n8,`p,,R, n 6^n^, ^6n^n,``v`v`v``v,`,dv`^Z,b,dv`^V,vd@vd@ ^~N^,`pFv~d @4p$^6n6^n6,t~6`n,,rl`z`xnt8l,vx`,vzB,dvz`~^b,dvx`|^D,`z`xnt8rl2`z`xnt8,vx,vz,ntf ,h,v,h t $$ *J(hP| `,,B,\^r,  :T,, \,dr6dLr\^r,,`r,f8,r6d`,rdr2 ,,b,,rb,dHv,dv,`vr$,\^p,rbb,vl~X,vld @4p$H68\ R(H8>,`tdt,`r&,`vp\tl((8N(b,`vprvrv\tl((8H$4p$6J((H,`p,f,^p,,rrv.,rrr2$rxrx<,,rrr2$rxr$dx,f,,,vlXt,`vprv\rvrx`t2v$4p$6J(((8,,vl~,vld @4p$6 R,`tdt,`r,tlNV,rvrvtl($4p$(68J(8,rxrx,,vl,rx`t2v,,`r:T*,j$rrr2v,h,v,h`"Xl (8H ,,FSELECT STATE RANGE$NISelect a range of cells containing the values that represent the current state of the process.|6$$v$4p$f6V6&$ $$4p$6  fV6&,FSELECT UPDATE RANGE$LFSelect a range containing formulas that compute the next state of the jeprocess. At each iteration, this range will be copied and pasted-special-values onto the state range.|&$$$4p$666$v $$4p$V6f  &6Vf,t6&t66fVtf 6t 6f6t6v f6V&6fvp,<5State range and update range must have the same size.VvVfv( Vfv,L,,SELECT OUTPUT TABLE${Select a range with model output in the top row, but with the top-left cell unused. Output will be tabulated below at each :5iteration, with iteration numbers in the left column.|f$4p$V6v$ $F$4p$6  Vfv,tV 6fVf,tV6fVf,V0NV,`dpr`dpr6V,HAOutput range must contain at least 2 rows and at least 2 columns.VvVvITERATIVE PROCESSfvf( Vfv,L,,F$`dpv$$$tV6f"Vf,4p$V6fNVf,,$4p$V6NV,$4p$V6NNV,v$F$vd@$$tV6f"6vRVfv,$tR,$tR8,R,$4p$V6`NV,4p$V6TNV,fv`^N,t,$vd@$tV6 NV,`dp$vd@$tV6NV, Iteration `dJF. First output cell = |f$$tV6v$4p$6JF Vfv,t,F$$$tV6 NV,4p$V6TNV,vNn,F Iterations ($$t Vnxf v to v$6$t nx&)$$$t6Vfv,tVL 6l NV,$$tV6NV,br$4p$V6NNV,$4p$V6`NV,$4p$V6NV,L &RLLFJVfv&6Vfd@`dp>$$.$tN6n"6Nn(L(Select a range with simulation output in the top row, but not in the top-left cell. Recalculated values will fill the lowe,,v, j j pjp(`P?V@60p,h,vP,h  0@`p|V,,8, j?VpN,h,v,h@V pV,,8, `6P`P, P 6`P`,P 6``p@ f0 6`p f6P` ,, 6`p f 60`p@ fP6` 0,<,b,b,b,b|,dvr`^,dvp`^,vrd@vpd@ 6t,rtb ,bt,rrt,rv@vrd@vpd@6rtv(  ,rv@vrd@vpd@6rtv(  ,r|v@vrd@vpd@6vrd@vpd@6 (0rtv(P`| `,vp,vrb,r )\(?rr Gz?r@6,,,r|rr$r2r2v,h,v,hV $$ 0P`p,v<, P$v*d@4p$6@ `*n0@, P$`*d,,ldSimtools (3.31) was developed at the Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University.v,jp,jp`$P 1996-2000 by R. B. Myerson.@0ABOUT SIMTOOLS v (p`@ ,L,, @`p,v:d@v:d@4p$6@ `:`:n,8@,`:`:n,8d`,,b`:n0,`>v8`:ddHl,,,,dp p0fZv$4p$|6lJ |l,vd@vd@4p$l6|J ?p$v\$p ?XvL$4p$<6,($$r$vl|<,,h,v,h ,<\l|, P$`*dp$4p$6@:T@,j,,v>d@v>d@4p$6@ `>`>n,8@,`*n0d@^,,@,d,b,  :T, | , :T,| ,ppt,,pppp0,ppp0,pdp"pfZ2d,ptpptLvd@pp"t|$dpp"tl$4p$\6@`V, >,P""f:f8> ,,d>,,`>`>v,,`>f,`>*,  !?&,,f*,d&,,`*v0`*v4,  ,dv<`*d^Z,@ptP$4p$`6pH `<n4@`p,v<,@d`*n0N@, P$$4p$@6`@`,dv<`*d^Z,@ptP$4p$`6pH `<n4@`p,v<, P `*n00,,dv<`*d^z, P$vd@v>d@4p$6@ `>`>n,8@,`*n0d@4p$6@H `*n4@,`>dH,n,8n4"dn,8fZ ?Xn4$n4,n4d@4p$6@ n0@,n0fP ,h,,`>`>n,8d`,,`>dv:ddHlb,v:d@v:d@4p$6@ `:`:n,8@,`:`:n,8d`,,b`:n0,`>v8`:ddHl,v8d@v:d@4p$6@p&tP(` `8`:n,8@,`8dv<`>^r,`8`:n,8`<`:n,8`<`8n,8"`8`:n,8,v<,`8`:n,8b`L,`8`:n,8`8`8n,80`8`:n,8,`:n0`8`:n,8`8n4"`:n0,`:`:n,8`8`:n,8fZ`:`:n,8,v8,`:`:n,8 ?X`:`:n,8,`:n0`:`:n,8`:n4"tP$4p$6@ `:n0@,v:,n0fP ,h,vP,h ", 0 4 @`p(j^ R(t(bZr$4p$8 ,,, b, 6t6dtd,`pT  6d 6tfDdt,,  , T@@d: <,``jnf8`j`nf8,vj,``dnf8`d`nf8,vf,vld`vfd`4p$6$4p$6,rpvvld`vd @4p$6p p,dv`^,`n|8,X(` ) Coefficient|`n|8N,vd@v`n|8N,v@,"Regressn Array ... 7 Rows x ` Columns|n|8N, Interceptn|8,`dp$vn|8N, Std Errorn|8,rp``d2 ?Xvn|8,jvp^P,fv`^2,``n|8,v,v,n|f ,h,v,h"@,"f l |`x 00&FVle3152535axbcendfunctionNormInv45genNormSInvnormlSIMMACS2.XLSy5,,,x 6hxh,h6xhx,h6x`pX fHhx,d,``dv`dv,dv`^DH,X$vd@H6h`nHh,vD,d`dn,dv`^@,dv`^8Select a range of rows to be extended by combinations. ,j RZ,lF@New worksheet rows will be inserted at the bottom of this range.B,,l0*Cells below this range may be overwritten.,,vd@"SELECT RANGE TO BE EXTENDED$4p$6 $ $:$4p$*6 ~ *,t~ 6,t~6,$$t~N,t N,tL 6l N,Select another range. Each row in this range will be copied to the right of a copy of each row in the previously selected range.z,$vd@t6N,vzd@SELECT EXTENDING RANGE$4p$6$ $:$4p$ 6* r *,tr 6,tr6,$$trvN,tv N,j R`drD^,``dp$:$vd@$t6"6 6  ,$vd@t$vd@vd@tv"6,j RtL 6*tv L 6RD *,b`b`rbb`rD`dr:D,b`br$vd@t$`b`brJ$vd@``bbr$:$tv6"6,,,dv`^,vd@:$```p$$t6"$$vd@``pJ$$t6"6,```p$vd@t$vd@vd@$vd@t6"6,v,``,``,vd@vd@t"6N,A range containing `~B< combined rows has been made. Continue making combinations?n~,vnf@jp COMBINE ROWSv(p^,j^ R,t,bZr$4p$6NN,pkIn the selected range, any cell that is the same as the cell above will displayed in yellow half-size font.z,vzd@"HIGHLIGHT CHANGES IN TABLE$4p$6$ $$4p$6 v,$$tv666,tv 6,tv6,fv`^z,dv`^v,vd@vd@tv6`dp$vd@tv6R,br$vd@vd@tv66~,`p$vd@vd@tv66,,vv,vz,L,bZr$4p$6NN,L: :00r^zn~v,,~ *fZ``n8(v$2(``n8 ?X``n8(v(v(nf, ,,,brNrP^d,bv,b~, @ 60@0, 06@0@,0 6@`pP f 6`p f60@,, :Tb,`b,6 6`pP f66 `p f06@  r6 ,N, f,,^`,,dv`^,dv`^l,`bf,vd@vd@6$vfd @4p$6 R^`,,``,vd@vd@6,vd@vd@ 6,rb ,b,rvrv,`d,r~rr$~,,rNr2$r~rr$~,,v,vv,rvbN,vf,,r~rv2v,`d:TB,rNvvd @4p$6J(,,h,v,h0 f(( 0@,,l,^ 6N^N,N6^N^,N 6^`p> f.6`p f6N^,, ,dv`^,dv`^,vd@vd@6,v~r>rv j~6<,rv~,vd@vd@6N,,vZ,v<,h,,6 6`p> f66.`p fN6^  r6.,l, n,dv`^*,dv`^ ,vd@vd@6$vnd @4p$6 R,vd@vd@6,v~rrv j~6<,rv~,vd@vd@6N,,,v,v,v~,v,h,v,h"n~((.N^br`^@J( ?`d`,,r,b,r ?(,d,dr,dr  ,,`bp,|,h,,r b ,b ,b,dr `Z,rbN,,f,rrr|``rlD\Z,`d,r`d`$r $`dr $2,rr,,d`````pl,h,vl,hT  \$2``n8(``n8``n8f,,H,  :T,  fp,  fpj, prv`(P$4p$@6J0 66@,f$rrv 6,h,,,rb ,rN,rNv rNv$4p$6J(,h,v,hf $$@PpvF`n6`nN6(dv`^.h(``n8vF`nP,,2,  :T,  fp,rv` rv(pP$4p$@60JP@, ` f0P,j` 60@(P($r(v p6,h,,,rNr2($r(Nv,rb,jR,h,v,hP 0@Pp,|,jHX ,H,,  :T@,ptH  X,(,j HX , Hn,,P,r Nvpdrv$4p$6`J(P`,h,vp,h`n P`>,, ,pdrpbr|6l,,pp ,,ppp p0,pdr|pbr6l,,ppt2,pp ppp" ?X$v|,pp>,p p pdpdp" ?X$v|,h,v|,hD>  l :T@,pt HX,V,jHX ,H,,  :T,ptH  X,,j HX , HH,,,p  !?,  !? ,p ư>, ư> ,pp,,v d@4p$x6hHLTo l?6X xh,pppp0,pdL$,ppp"ptT,pb<,ppppXd"pd0pt,,,, :T@,pt HX,|,jHX ,H,,  :T@,ptH  X,(,j HX , H,,h,vH,hh Xhx^,,,r  !?, !?,r lr ?X$d,bd,br v,br\br 2v|$4p$l6LJ(<$rv4p$6b dh0v(?V6lL,rr $r b22,,,r N$f,f,,rbN,d,rr@,b,rr $b2,rr,,br,h,v,h ,,<Ll,,4p$~N~,t~6n~n,tn 6~^Nn~,`d,^$>$tN6n Nn,N0NN,`dHr>`bHr^6N,,4p$N6nN> f~Nn,*>#OK to set Calculation to Automatic?vN,jNn.^'(To reset, see the Tools:Options menu.)~Nn~,vf>@^Nn~(p.Nn~,j. RN,L,.$4p$N6NNN,,^SimTable$.$>$tN6NN,$^$vd@.$>$tN6n"6~Nn~,$t,$t8,,=(ROW()-b)/`  ,l|^$vd@>$$.$tN6n"6Nn,N$$.$tn$txNn,vd@vd@$.$tN6n"6Nn,>$$.$tN6 NN,$4p$N6jNN,vd@`dp>$$.$tN6n"6Nn,L,Select a range with simulation output in the top row, but not in the top-left cell. Recalculated values will fill the lower rows.82 A percentile index will fill the leftmost column.|N~SIMULATION TABLEnvn( Nn~,L",, Nn~&`\``$`` `(`4`, `4`h`$0 4P````4>``G*\Rffff*3bc86aa47*\R0*#2*\R0*#5*\R0*#6*\R0*#0*\R0*#1c*\G{00020813-0000-0000-C000-000000000046}#1.0#9#..\XLEN50.OLB#Microsoft Excel 5.0 Object Library*#0*\R0*#7c*\G{00020813-0000-0000-C000-000000000046}#1.0#9#..\XLEN50.OLB#Microsoft Excel 5.0 Object Library*#1d*\G{00020813-0000-0000-C000-000000000046}#1.0#9#..\XLEN50.OLB#Microsoft Excel 5.0 Object Library*#81307t r\htHl. <tL.%    ve , ti r ut PoTarH*  PReturns inverse cumulative distribution for a Poisson random variable. !0 p ^$r  h tT zendogɂ$-2 nsɂ<  pFor a generalized lognormal random variable (lognormal plus constant) with 25% probability below quart1, 50%  rrɂH  c|Returns a label corresponding to a maximal value, where the corresponding test cells (if any) match the criterion. !0  p" .$if h  r    h ~ /n 0 rt: nt6 arɂ>  crɂH ieReturns the certainty equivalent of a random variable with discrete probabilities, in the event where the test cells (if any) match the criterion. !0  p~,* /)   r ~ 8/v t @ hal  h ~io  v f 4 f ed d b co  ` orMakes all combinations of rows from selected ranges. Makes all combinations of rows from selected ranges. !0  "  | D/? o   b   r  ~   ,   D P X F~ zve \ x v ic h Pr fu npl t ^ ra ZZasɂ@ tiInverse logistic or logit function. Applied to a fraction or (as an array function) to a discrete probability distribution, returns log odds ratios. !0   h/    h un ns( (ɂ ncLogistic function. Transforms random variables to fractions or (as an array function) to discrete probability distributions proportional to EXP(x(i)). !0 ` ` P ,0  <  hT ` t st   f   coF  oFor a regression, returns the standard error of the estimated conditional mean of Y (often called Y-hat) at the given new X values. !0 8   H0         io< s  lss  pAn array function. To a selected range, returns multiple regression output for predicting the Y variable from given X values. !0 \|\ 03   \  ( H hx8 f p 4| L* x pp$' /l r j  `f$8 X  ul ioɂ mu~Returns a lower-triangular matrix square root. An array function, used for simulating a given array of covariances. !0  80T1    r 0 0ow blɂ atɂ(  g\)P+ L\,P!| h#\ p4,`"  T<`%l(*$-!0X5 1B > < : r 80"&)X   4 ,4 h0L` ,x *| j&   dd1Tr ,*, v" etReturns the inverse cumulative distribution for a gamma random variable, parameterized by its mean and standard deviation. !0 <  @1Tve* d"r ɂ $vaɂ teReturns the inverse cumulative distribution for a beta random variable, parameterized by its mean and standard deviation. !0 4* p1 $L jon s Xe  dT(r 8*8nd" arReturns the inverse cumulative distribution for a lognormal random variable, parameterized by its mean and standard deviation. !0  H @1 P1n f 0inp @o : esWith a probability distribution and corresponding values of two random variables (in same-size ranges), returns the covariance. !0  &P  1, 2e .  0z  |ba $@ttr rd <pin0 |ra: (iWith a probability distribution and corresponding values of a random variable (in same-size ranges), returns the standard deviation. !0  &4l |$2n f Pinp `o : esWith a probability distribution and corresponding values of two random variables (in same-size ranges), returns the correlation coefficient. !0 m ZBp@ 2 oIteratively copies values to a state range from an update range, and tabulates output. Iteratively copies values to a state range from an update range, and tabulates output. !0 ,bP,. 3,e  t "   .  s nt Znt\ xra6omɂ@ a Returns the certainty equivalent of a random draw from the incomes range, for a decision-maker with constant or linear risk tolerance. !0 |(^h 43nt h r nc X x~ LLx r v ty, pjr ir `2@p do Xpl s, d ɂ( onTo an array, returns Dirichlet random fractions, with sum=1 and means proportional to corresponding alphas; higher alphas reduce variance. !0 l 4! ~ |l z x  t hl  d B \re Z st( tr  rTo a row, returns an estimated alpha array for a Dirichlet distribution. Each row in the data range should sum to 1. !0 P!z`P 5     o$4  L hl ,  re0  ab:  aWith RAND() as first parameter, returns a discrete random variable with values and corresponding probabilities in the given ranges. !0 !lu`"  V5ti s tnt  rav!ge! o eaReturns the constant risk tolerance such that getting the high or low income, each with probability 1/2, has this certainty equivalent value. !0 h#j!! 6 ob !2, h  a "ar ~ns vx !nti r lie rTo a selected array, returns the matrix of correlation coefficients among the columns of the data range. !0 L#%"" 46(     # r # #"# # # '$ $ #  $4$ L$`$ 83x$ #~ $ $ $ rm% ta isReturns an array of normalized rank values, sampled from the standard normal distribution and rank-ordered as the data column. !0 l(8%(% X6d+% %x & (%(&<<L<&@& T&dth& && \3 & "&  0&&&& ' $' D' d' ',('''\(' ((+X0 0'((",(,\(H<(  T(\)'2|6# r   B (L X (j (8 0 ltfMultiplies each pair of values in a given range, and returns the products as a square array. !0 *(( H6  ! ) )t a) h)  x3 )p * $* T\*l**l* 還3" tugReturns the inverse cumulative distribution for an extreme value (or Gumbel) random variable. !0 +|*L* 6 v+  tusReturns the conditional median of a CORAND given another CORAND's value and the correlation between them. !0 4,(++ 6++ɂ( +OTo a row array, returns a random ordering of the numbers from 1 to n. !0 e++  7la ~ s vmo r t0 lP, h,  ", d,, ,  +pT- \|--3 <,--3 R  --xl-Tabulates output from repeated recalculations of a simulation model. Tabulates output from repeated recalculations of a simulation model. !0 x|/ |  ( L @ X p d 8/8 p 8 8  /  /$       ( P     (  0 h $ /\ P /    / / @L,Xdl/ (  |00T(0 d1 1 1 1(1 T` H0 @2 lH2|H2& Z (  (  @P`T2T2(       P,\8D!j (   (  (  nx nx (  3 3 nxP34  $4`nx" H4^!H4\H4nx \4 nx+|4 # |4nx# 4nx hd|`24 T5nx <5"nxx2x2" ( 2  ` PT 2|65|6To a row array, returns RANDom seeds for variables with correlations as in the given array. (RAND on right may be from source cell.) !0 ^p! ! |!22U""",3""!"",3##$$#T$($"#83&&&\&&&\3((('((('))(|)))x3\*L*33++3T,l,3+x,`,,,3%T4,8 MEh>qs *Xj8m$Fnl0T6u<bdwHpf}T~`%llx|di?  & *4 BL+P܆?^ l,z8 Dtm?P?\q?hx?t"t????" $"0,@X4h"(6f4(D (Xd">h,Z $R(P8&H8 6` &,NB$&(* d   $(8B<@ D$(P$(tF   88  X`d t   B , ,@",`BBRN 0B48 J<\`pBtx| L@h &  8 < L BP T X  h Dt *     F   , B0 4 8 L T h p             &  860 h x **|    B "  " " 2\  @ L \ 4l (    .      >t  ( 8 (dH 4p (    .       B&@TX h p"x"2\ >t $, 08<L \,fd 44DP@ D LT dpt&P"&&|2T , ( (@H 4NV@8@\","<(L dp* R$"x"( T,L(N<6Ndl \ Hv| *d4Vh *tzV0,T""6d ,H, >Xx | *B(N( B0L&0l$VDl,f  8@HL\B`dh(N|( *d$ ,4T"8d B""44JH <X x$H " F HdhxB|""Fpb$ 4&( < 4H( &.\   4N    ( !!2$! @!(:H! p! ^x!J!!&!.^!0" "Bt(".l"6"."6@"" #&# 0# 8#@#H#L#\#B`#d#h# #&#8# #$:#0F# $$$(($@$$VT$x$$V$$$ <f$ $%Fp,%4Pt% %(>% %%%%%B&(d&,&&0& X&&d& t&$:& &&(& & &&&& &' 6' ('4'NH' `'"h'Hx''N' ''''*n' ( J((.TH(x($V|(F( (\r(F()H)P)T)*X)x)$V)*)))*b*0* <fD* *Fp*0B*2P+ 4+(><+:pd+ +++++B++6X+, ,,B ,$,(, @, H, P, l,,,,*&,Bx-D-H-X-B\-`-d-(Hl-J----"- -.B..&."." /2\/2\P/ / / / ///4///&N0&N00>zX0 0 0.80$&0011B11"21@1D1T1BX1\1Np`1111"1"1"1p2N3Dl(4l4p4Xt4"5"55"5j586<6,L@6 ,l6x6 (|6 (6,Z666 6 &6 "66 6 67 6(7XH7 7 67 "7 7p7P8*`8*x8 &8 &88B88*8 88889 9 9$949L9 P9X9&&\99 9 9 9@9 9 H9  $:  ,:  4: <: @: "*L: p: (0t:  : :: :,b:: :@: ; <z; T;d; h;p;;(8;;;;B;0;;&;" <"<(,< D<L<\<0dd<<<<0`<4< =0h=&`@=h=$l= = ==="8= = ====>B> >>",>"<>L> \>d>t>>,P> >"(>> ??<>? T?\?d?h?x?B|???,? ??&? ?&?@@ @@&,@D@H@L@\@B`@d@"h@@@@@ @@@A AA A""4AXAlA|A\A A@tA@t8B xB2.B"BB*.BCC CCB C$C(CHC"`C"pCPC CCCC(DDD0D DD LDXD 4hD D 4\D  D DDDD DDHb ETEhE:V|E>fE2E F F$F,F0F@FBDFHFLF`F tF0F>^FFFXFPG P`GGG4GG(GG G&G H6hH TH\HdHhHxH"|HH0FHH HH I I0I 8ITIdIhIxII IIII II J J,J @J HJ2(TJ&,JJ J2(J&,JK KB$K(K,K HK0TTK(BK KKK KK$4KL$4,L2PL lL tL|LLLLBLL L6|L"LMM$MB(M,M0M"bHMlMpMMBM0MMM(BM$:M N$N$"4N XNdNtN*8N &N NNNNOOTYt .. !!' ! ! ''  '' %! 'r 'A@  EfN `!N B#OK to set Calculation to Automatic? $J'(To reset, see the Tools:Options menu.)',  ,  t $j' Etf` B `(NgmTSimTable %(   %%"% 9 B98mRO=(ROW()- r )/ ', ,  %%"( % B@x   %%"B@  %B@  `(j    %%"B@tSelect a range with simulation output in the top row, but not in the top-left cell. Recalculated values will fill the lower rows.2 A percentile index will fill the leftmost column.SIMULATION TABLEA@jk<Y\ht T !? E !?'Tf * *?  ' d  *   * `%J $ `%  ?'h h * *  't`' *$'h h'tg hEf T t ^  '* h * 'h t h 't 'r U('pe. p. Y T !? E !?'Tf Tư> Eư>'Tf   E. f T `%HLTo l?'R      '     R  '  a     R     '`. 2gf 2$f 2  2 E. f  2 E 2'fgf <$f <  < E. f  < E <'fg. r. U('PePYp T T Ef  Ef      '   Ef T E     T ? 'f T  E     T   ? 'fr U('e * T `%J'r U('e @$f  @ 6 @  `%J' @E  @ $ @ 'frgg  6$' 6 E 'fr U('e<< @$f  @ @E @  H `%J @ 'Hf H$ 6  @'Rrg6g 6 E H'Hf 6 H `%J'Rr< U('RLeLYlx' @? ' T 'T@ @ '@g 'r@g @ E'@f' @  '  Ef  't T t   ^  '     @  @ ' t  't        'r U('\e\Y|r ! !' !!' 0! !  0!! Erff > $f       0%!'h $ h   h'  %!' g  'r> g  > ! !  > !!  H $f Erf H '      > %  `%  0%!'h $ h   h'  %!' gg   $E  U(' frr r  U(' eY   ( 4 @ L YX d p | " 6'''h 0! !' 0!!' :! !  :!! E" ff > $f '   > ! !  > !!  H $f E" f H '`'' g       > %  `%' g   :%!'@  0%!'h @ E'@f  @ 'E E h @ h 'h _E h @ h 6$ 'h fg    U('ph ` h 'p E 6 p `%J'pf" g" r "  U('p e Y , 8 D P \ h t  Y         itIs it OK to insert new rows into the worksheet? (Otherwise, cells below the combination range will be overwritten.)' INSERT NEW ROWS? $j' N `!N'Zf  `( X `(N8Select a range of rows to be extended by combinations. '  @New worksheet rows will be inserted at the bottom of this range.'`* *Cells below this range may be overwritten.'g  SELECT RANGE TO BE EXTENDED !  `%.F F! !' F!!'b  F%.X X ! 'r X !L B@l leSelect another range. Each row in this range will be copied to the right of a copy of each row in the previously selected range.' b b X %B@ SELECT EXTENDING RANGE !  `%.P  P! !' P!!'  P%.x x ! '~   E     X %%"! B@ f b X % x %"B@  X !L ! x !L ! ~ r  ~ r     r  ~ b X % ~  r    r ~ x %%"B@gg      X %%" b  X %%"B@   b X % b X %%"B@  ' b 'b b  b X %"B@A range containing < combined rows has been made. Continue making combinations?'  COMBINE ROWS $j' Ef Z `(NkIn the selected range, any cell that is the same as the cell above will displayed in yellow half-size font.' HIGHLIGHT CHANGES IN TABLE !  `%.x  x %!! ' x ! !' x !!'b    b x %!  x %!$ x %!(~ x %!( g ftZf Z `(Nk  Y     ' @  `%$^  ' hH 2$' @  `%' E  'f   E 'f   @  `% +h $h   $hE  +hf $h  `%J +h  h' r  U('  e Y$ 0 \ h    `%$^  ' h '     `%$ +h  $h '  E  'f   $h  +h  h' r   U(' `e`Y  ! !' !!' !! Ef   4  T    %! +    +       %! +   +  `%J  `% `% `% `%p ' F ?' r   U(' e22Y(4@LXdY,  ! !' !!' ! !  !!   E2f P    `x   '    %!'h  $ h  +h  h h '    %! +   $` $   +` $ $ h + r  r  r $` $ r $  r +` r       +`   r    r $` r +` r    $`  +` `  ` `% `%'    `%p  '   + X(  ) Coefficient + $ + grRegressn Array ... 7 Rows x  Columns+te Intercept+  $+d Std Error+     ?+    +   'r 2  U('\e \ Y| $ !!'  ! !E f $a   '    E f`'g        `%  + r   r  r  `% r +  r +  r   r $ $ r $ r +  r $E r $ r r $ r +f  $ r $  + r   $?  +  'r  U('e( ( `%$ `B@ Y(T $ !!' $a   '`'g.    ' !?'j'`''jgj h  ($f     `%H +  +hh ( `%$a    `%H + ( +hh`   ( `% `%H + (  `% +h (  `%$E f g    `%  + $h `%H + $$$ ?$ +$ `%+hh h'rg  $E f       `%  +  $E f +hh r     r  `% j r + r   r $ $ r $ r + r $E r $ r r $ r +f $h r $ r $ +h  $ r $  + r r  $?  + $h  $ $ `% +hh  h'r  U(''ep, T * " " * `%8''r,, U(''ehY 'L'j $f E 'LfL $f E 'jfj L jEf * j  L j '' " L j 'X'    X '' j L j  T      `%b ''r U(''eY " * `%J' T * `%J?  ? `%($''r U(''edSimtools (3.31) was developed at the Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University. $J$J 1996-2000 by R. B. Myerson.ABOUT SIMTOOLSA@jjkFFY $0<HT` :!!' :! !' f! !  f!! EFfF p! !  p!! EFfF''z''      :%!'@' @ E'@f  @ '' z  f%! @ 'z'   p%! @ ''   f%!  p%! @ ''  )\(? Gz? EFfF  z    'rF  U(''e< < 0 0 :$?'&'r <  U('&'eH H f p :$ f f :$ p p :$?'Z'r H  U('Z'eY ,8DP\SELECT STATE RANGEISelect a range of cells containing the values that represent the current state of the process. %!  `%.mbSELECT UPDATE RANGEFSelect a range containing formulas that compute the next state of the eprocess. At each iteration, this range will be copied and pasted-special-values onto the state range. %!  `%." !! "!! ! ! "! ! "!! ra5State range and update range must have the same size.A@jtg SELECT OUTPUT TABLE{Select a range with model output in the top row, but with the top-left cell unused. Output will be tabulated below at each 5iteration, with iteration numbers in the left column. !  `%. ! !' !!'A@  tpAOutput range must contain at least 2 rows and at least 2 columns.ITERATIVE PROCESSA@jtg    %%".. `!N'Z  `( X `(N   %%"% 9 B98m( `(`T `B@T   .B@   %B@    %( Iteration  . First output cell =  .%! `( "B@  %B@  `B@T  Iterations (nx "% to nx %) %( !L B@l  %B@ Z `(N `(`( `(,kf,fYLXdp|'jf @$f X @'X X T'jgX j~ 6'~ XTa X X '~`~'~g ~ E'r _E'r f~ r ~'~p'@ ~ p \` p `%  'E jE r p!'_E r 6 X p! `%J'f @h 'h'@hg h  L h   ~$ 'LL` L  h  ~$ 'L 'hgpg% ph r h ~ L  `%J '(`\ p \` p `%  'E jE p!'_E 6 X p! `%J'f L  'Lpg p L '(jg jE ($ 6  X'(fr f  U('(|e(| ($f  `B@Y  ! !' !!'  H'h ($f '   (! !  (!! Efg     E 'B _E  (%!'B f  %!' ' T B ? `%( +` B  `%8 +gh h $ 'h      $ h +  'r  U(''efY   ( T `  ! !' !!'  'h   +   $  %! + $  + h $ 'h   ?   $ h  h +  'rf  U(''eP!Yp!|!! 0! :!Ef  ::  '' t ! 't'  t 0%!''rgMb   tMbP? 0%!''rg`"  U(''e`"Y"""""""" v Ef    v  '''r T? U('j'r ? a   '''r 'gc  Efc]F??  '' X2ı.?'   'h' h? h$? `%J  E h'_E h' f ? $? `%J' ? $? `%J'           'h' r v   h'j`j r v    'j'grdN  U('j'eh#Y#######Y#($T$$$ ! !' !!'  $ $ $    % '  '"    %. "  `% '" ! +  "    $ $ + r    r $ $ r $  r + r r `  ''g    $ $ $  ?  +  +   r    r $ $ r $   r +  r $  $ r r $  r +    r $  r +  r r  'r  U(''e%Y&0&\&&Y&&&& !' `!! !  `!!! NORMIZE array requires  rows x 1 column.''rg & ' <' \' '   % `%  '' + %! +`... +g $$$ $A@   $  `%H $+ 'r  U(''el(Y((((((( "  , "  $$'8 " ,, $$ 8 JP $ " B + B 'B'IP $ , X + X 'X'O L 'L' $ L+j " B  'r  r  L 'j r  r L r $ + j + " B L ,, $ + B $$$ " " B  $A@ Ba " "+g X $$$ , X ,$A@ Xa , ,+gk\)Y|)))))) 0!'  0! ! 0!! Ef *  hD* p 00  '' p! + pp   $ $ +h   $ $ +h $h  +h  h'r  U(''e* " E T 'TfTN1?wF? T `%J `%J '' * "  'r U(''eE+ v Ef v  `%H `%''r4, U(''e4, ($f  `B@YT,`,l,x,,, , - ($f E '_E ('f  '       ' 'r   r ' r  E'r fE r r $  + $ r r + + 'r  U('e _bČf(nxՆK8U,vZSKIp& &UfZ$V VMP2"J ] ^z  $* $ . zj6 #ZD 9ZxH ZL P FV #^  f & n +z Ռn qx tm  og f ~ !Y` ht L  $ +0 &6 FZ.< sy@ J MD AH &P X 3Zh cl ir &lu| u w x @3 A3 * &: q &(] " &^ Z  v_ C^ n 1F  @ okh ( ɾ(2 &1Ւ: q4F KV ,p\ d j r v ^ cJ Ԃ &YO &Q & k ^ [ & &L \ &P> jZ VB1J  &| Z6  }  1  , mZ< Su@ &X8H ZT X ~d &?n Zx W Z| _ v \ aT d "H ! &Q i ?@Z&g:"-,:X8>&[HL̝=Tid^f^ʜlv~);`"Wt'1lZI&QoJO yU&y>Zb _:;<>"9^ ^$;`(8.6i5:}@pDLۺT%_Zm^KfCj&gZtUxulR}l>Y;nCi( 1 Ws]X]]]u;?Gi"Z &&&_"8&4ExcelVBABook2Module1_EvaluatemynewmsgChrtitlxxMsgBoxvbOKCancelvbCancelmodoutRangeSelectionSelectmsg2 numInputBoxActiveCellOffsetValueiCopyPasteSpecialPastexlValuesOperationxlNoneSkipBlanksTransposeCalculateApplicationCutCopyModeSIMTABLEpoinvrmr110nprobyExpcumprob2030SIMMACS.XLSSubSimT2_B_var_Chrfractmeanmeampfractlfractile)cumprprFRfpoinv2thereName yyFormulaR1C1junk-AddressAuto_Openssmodout0defsim&DatabasepoisninvPOISINVnumbernumericrealIntprobabilitycumfvcumvtcumtAuto_CloseColumnGENLINVquartile1quartile2quartile3152535axbcendfunctionNormInv45genNormSInvnormlSIMMACS2.XLSy5SimulationTablefDialogMain $XXX.XLSGenInvTypeandroundownRoundDownrngclsColumnsCountrwsRowsrootResia] i*\G{000204F3-0000-0000-C000-000000000046}#1.0#9#C:\WINDOWS\SYSTEM\VBAEN.OLB#Visual Basic For Applicationsf*\G{00020813-0000-0000-C000-000000000046}#1.0#9#C:\EXCEL\XLEN50.OLB#Microsoft Excel 5.0 Object LibraryDQ G 86b44038cb 3bc86aa47*D  p < X \R  Lp>* (Pt ~, r <"Ht. Jr @ ^ j\ Bh ~ht   tv > FRxl~,h H|f22\ j  t `j(T\ 48 TjBL L f4** 2PH@  `JJ  J~ `& * | H TTx :B @?+& 8 tbr lBl "FQ4(K~ ,0 0b_ 6Rl :x?R B'N'TX `atZfpdtx F 4K\`ƿ K oyұ* K( &$i*d.^2Z6e:)@KFJ?ZvRdZV/cZR fFj\; pg@|@@0gⅪ`'^z E]] H,iX s_ S GŨ V '_X)  &-&Qz . 6A<^ :@^LmT8n Xk^lhbw hitq2|&34R5 ZJDZ( VBiZ@XowYZ7pbZ <nF  ɶl0Lp ,X$\P,4_^hB :f >HUR~ Vp9Z0v brhU l T r@4x6W4Q6hdN( ; 3@4]$ HOrfm~2 I C" ? 1H w8 H x$泐.8v 2Ȳ 86Q<B^ JNֽ &Xc, \d`2FdN|j<ni x0a  O2 3+`X(# =m  ^ z ZZ4Z` it_H( Z Z Z kZgkeZ@Z"&j, 2 8*>DkVJFR<\blbLhc^ nʒt!Z|f ‹`" @N@MP   f<] *L p(74G<~  D _&i^^b 23C  &&cC.4_<F MbP\V|Z-M `dBj^> P r\vtB zQ]a? " r0D\"]M&`F Ok^ MA xj3X<";F(<,qf 06<%jN{T5\` dsf"j pv*otfwz (fTDy |UUOb* 8PE" n$ #< n"<,2a^,<@n"FLR_Z^^ze+DataSeriesRowcolxlColumnsxlLinearDatexlDaystepTableCellsfaSIMTOOLS.XLS1Messageboxmess1PromptTitle2BordersxlBottom#Weight6xlThinTRNGLINVminmodeJmaxTRNGLEXPLINVLnxlMedium?odeLLogColor7ROWSLIKEpatternpatincjTIsEmpty8OIL.XLSROWSBTWN HiPatternLoPatternHipatlowpatIsNumberloLopat4142testG49hitestlotestN43111237ROWSIF3121junkmjunkljunkRandHeadsTailsROWSLHwROWSIFLHwchkhichkloskphiskplolotsthitstochkploNotIsEmptylopattendataRangeLoCellsHiCellsitmin_valmode_valemax_vallowerboundupperboundmostlikelymodalvalueFBINOMINVnnppptpr2COMBINEmessoutrngoutsheetWorksheetrng1c1Activaterng2defaultr2c2putheregoonButtonsvbYesSIMT2.XLSSIM2.XLSvbYesNovbDefaultButton2Insert^xlDownws1ws2ARGMAXvalueCellslabelCellstestCellscriterionCONDEXPprobCellsprvaltp1tp2mess0insrtvbDefaultButton1 vbNo/LeftTopRowsht1mess2sht2EntireRowmess3LISTVALSinrnginshtoutshtboardThisWorkbookWorksheetsSortkey1matchcasekClearTORNADOcolintble#paramspaamspramsprmsshtSENSITIVSENSTVTYEFRINVfractionNFNFINVFRACFINVFRACINVxppxxtIsNullIsMissingSumProductFSumLOGITXLOGITuPLOGITeLOGITOUTdLOGITINLOGITXLOGITPlLGTXLGTLGTINVxlErrDiv032xlErrNullxlErrValue693iprpcellSelectionIsNumericEXPLUTILpaymentrisktolerance191413valuprofitxldiv0YHATSTEXDataRangeNewXRowRegresnStdErrorxshtzwxcol MMultMInverseYHAT.XLSnRegrsnStdErrorRegresnStdErrRegrssnStdErrXARGMAXpatternCellsXTOOLS.XLSXCONDEXP7JUNK.XLSMSIMNEW.XLSTMSQRTarray27IsObject IndexxlValueCORANDVolatileIsArrayRandomizeRndNormSDistErrGAMMA2INVstdevn29GammaInvBETA2INVusBetaInvSIMT.XLSGINVBINV161817xlerrvalue0xlErrNumLNMINV8sig2JUNQUE.XLSLNORMINVCBABOUTSIMcharFontSizeRGBSTDEVPRvaluesprobabilities 40diffCORRELPRvalues1values2mean1mean2std1std2 COVARPRsump PRODSJUNKK.XLSREGRESSNYDataRangeoutsumerYXxcol1mmoldstnewsttopoutColorIndexgxlAutomaticCalculationxlManualMARKOVrowabsolutecolumnabsolutevAreaslabels critCountIfrevBINOMINV2PiPOISINV2TRIANINVGAMINVBETINVSIMJNK.XLSlgEXPOINVUTILincomeCEEUtility36utilityUINVincomes44cell CEZsquareArraycorrelArrayEnableCancelKeyxlErrorHandler39DIRICHalphaCells59alphaArrayDISCRINVrandprob63rand1hlastrand,lastrand1UTIL2RiskTolConstRiskTolSlopeUINV2screenupdateScreenUpdating?RISKTOLHighIncome LowIncomeCertainEquivkrat48DIRALPHADIRICHXXRANDarraymissMCORRELSdCorrelCallerXLGTINVXLGTStatusBarCO2RANDRANDsourcelowesthighestrng1Arng2Acalx 38CEPRnegRTlinrhavtesCONDObigNORMIZEdatacolumn53rrFORMLIST.XLSquart1quart20quart3regressomcobdoitMCORlinstrtCEoGAM2INVBET2INVcnstSQvector4XTREMINV33IsErrorxGTxGTINVcelXISCRINVsrcrnkdata tempssrc1(NORMIXEQRANKlowhimidval j1j2j3RANK.XLSCONDMEDcorrelationgivenCoValue54MIDRANDSHUFFLEepsshSIMTOOLS.XLA!0P! PQ">PQ"> Com&bine RowsAbout Simtools...COMBINE4Makes all combinations of rows from selected ranges.!0$About Simtools...ABOUTSIM&Tools&WindowChart&Tools&WindowVisual Basic Module&Tools&Window\ R. Myerson B _VBA_PROJECT=xK$$</@"1 Courier New1 Courier New1 Courier New1 Courier New1 Courier New"$"#,##0_);\("$"#,##0\)"$"#,##0_);[Red]\("$"#,##0\) "$"#,##0.00_);\("$"#,##0.00\)%""$"#,##0.00_);[Red]\("$"#,##0.00\)5*2_("$"* #,##0_);_("$"* \(#,##0\);_("$"* "-"_);_(@_),))_(* #,##0_);_(* \(#,##0\);_(* "-"_);_(@_)=,:_("$"* #,##0.00_);_("$"* \(#,##0.00\);_("$"* "-"??_);_(@_)4+1_(* #,##0.00_);_(* \(#,##0.00\);_(* "-"??_);_(@_)                + ) , *  /Module1 Sheet1  &APage &P" g??>      Q  MbP?_*+%&APage &P"R)v??6U >  _Oh+'Oh+'0HdpSimulation ToolsonimuRoger MyersonlsogeJStatistical functions and macros for decision analysis under uncertainty.Microsoft Excel