Oleg Urminsky

Professor of Marketing
University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Contact me via e-mail at:

Visit my blog, Marginally Significant.

Download CV

Selected Papers

Current Working Papers

39. Urminsky, Oleg, Lucy Shen and Sondre Nero (2018) "High Chances and Close Margins: How Different Forecast Formats Shape Beliefs "
(available by request)

38. Banerjee, Akshina and Oleg Urminsky (2018) "What You Are Getting and What You Will Be Getting: Testing Whether Verb Tense Affects Intertemporal Choices"
(available by request)

37. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2018)* "Figuring Out Preference or Balancing Out Effort: Do Inferences From Incentives Undermine Post-Incentive Motivation?"

36. Urminsky, Oleg (2017)* "Probability Distributions of Common Repeated Events Are Misestimated"

35. Daljord, Oystein, Oleg Urminsky and Jose-Manuel Ureta (2017)* " The Status Quo Theory of Depletion Does Not Explain the Israeli Parole Decisions "

34. Bartels, Daniel, Reid Hastie and Oleg Urminsky (2017)* " Decision Making Research Inside and Outside the Laboratory: The Roles of Descriptive and Causal Field Research, and Narrow Versus Broad External Validity "
(invited comment, available by request)

33. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2017)* "No Substitute for the Real Thing: The Importance of In-Context Field Experiments In Fundraising "

32. Chen, Stephanie and Oleg Urminsky (2017) "We Are What We Think: Representations of the Self-Concept and Identity-Based Choice "
(available by request)

31. Urminsky, Oleg and Daniel Bartels (2017) "To Your Health: Connectedness to the Future Self Motivates Preventive Health Behaviors "
(available by request)

30. Molouki, Sarah, Stephanie Chen, Oleg Urminsky and Daniel Bartels (2017)* "How Personal Theories of the Self Shape Beliefs about Personal Continuity and Transformative Experience,"
Book chapter (available by request)

29. Chen, Stephanie and Oleg Urminsky (2017) "Not All (Brand) Changes Are Made Equal: Understanding Which Changes Impact Brand Loyalty"

28. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2017)* "More Time, More Work: How Non-diagnostic Time Limits Bias Estimates of Project Duration and Task Scope"
       Press Coverage: "This Deadline-related Mistake May Be Costing You Money", Capital Ideas, Fall 2014
       "How should we set deadlines?" Capital Ideas Video

27. Gilula, Zvi, Robert McCullough, Ya'acov Ritov and Oleg Urminsky (2017)* "A Study into a Mechanism of Attitudinal Scale Conversion: A Stochastic Ordering Approach"
(available by request)

26. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2017)* "Don't Fear the Meter: How Longer Time Limits Bias Employment Contract Choices "

25. Urminsky, Oleg, and Indranil Goswami (2016) "Impatient to Receive or Impatient to Achieve: How Goal Gradients Underlie Time Discounting "
(available by request)

24. Urminsky, Oleg, Christian Hansen and Victor Chernozhukov (2016) "Using Double-Lasso Regression for Principled Variable Selection"

23. Molouki, Sarah, Daniel Bartels and Oleg Urminsky (2016) "Neglecting Decline: Remembered and Predicted Personal Development Diverge from Actual Longitudinal Change"

22. Urminsky, Oleg, Adelle Yang and Lilly Koffler (2015) "Outcome Neglect and Failures of Insight Undermine Utility Maximization."
(available by request)

21. Yang, Yang, Oleg Urminsky, Christopher Hsee and Li Zhang (2014) "Hedonic Durability"
(available by request)

20. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2015) "The 'Mere Reminder' Effect of Salient Calorie Labeling"
       Press Coverage: "Consumer Protection Takes More Than Transparency", Chicago Booth Review, August 2016

19. Yang, Adelle, Oleg Urminsky and Chris Hsee (2014)"Eager to Help yet Reluctant to Give: How Pro-social Effort and Pro-social Choices Diverge"
       Press Coverage: "Beyond the Ice Bucket Challenge", Capital Ideas, Winter 2014
       "Fundraising: How charities can get smarter," Capital Ideas Video

18. Hamilton, Ryan and Oleg Urminsky (2013) "Inference not Reference: The Price Image Heuristic as an Alternative to Reference Price Theories"

Published/Accepted Papers

17. Yang, Adelle and Oleg Urminsky (2018) "The Smile-Seeking Hypothesis: How Immediate Affective Reactions Motivate and Reward Gift-giving"
Psychological Science, forthcoming
       Download data and analysis scripts

16. Urminsky, Oleg and Gal Zauberman (2017) "The Health Consequences of Intertemporal Preferences"
Handbook of Self-Control in Health and Wellbeing (forthcoming)

15. Urminsky, Oleg (2017) "The Role of ‘Psychological Connectedness to the Future Self’ in Decisions Over Time,"
Current Directions in Psychological Science, Vol 26, Issue 1, pp. 34 - 39

14. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2017) "The Dynamic Effect of Incentives on Post-Reward Task Engagement,"
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 146 (1), 1-19 [Lead Article]
       Download data and analysis scripts

13. Goswami, Indranil and Oleg Urminsky (2016) "When Should the Ask be a Nudge? The Effect of Default Amounts on Charitable Donations,"
Journal of Marketing Research 53 (5), 29-846.
       Download data and analysis scripts
       Press Coverage: "The Art of Suggested Donation Amounts", The Wall Street Journal, December 11, 2016
      "When and How Fundraisers Should Suggest How Much To Donate", Harvard Business Review Online, December 2016
      "Beyond the Ice Bucket Challenge", Capital Ideas, Winter 2014
      "Fundraising: How charities can get smarter," Capital Ideas Video

12. Chen, Stephanie, Oleg Urminsky and Daniel Bartels (2016) "Beliefs about the Causal Structure of the Self-Concept Determine Which Changes Disrupt Personal Identity,"
Psychological Science, Vol. 27(10), p. 1398–1406 (unreviewed version, final version available by request or here).
       Download data and documentation

11. Zauberman, Gal and Oleg Urminsky (2016) "Consumer Intertemporal Preferences,"
Current Opinion in Psychology Volume 10 (August), 136-141

10. Urminsky, Oleg and Gal Zauberman (2016) "The Psychology of Intertemporal Preferences,"
Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, George Wu and Gideon Keren (eds), Wiley-Blackwell, 141-181.

9. Yang, Adelle and Oleg Urminsky (2015) "The Foresight Effect: Local Optimism Motivates Consistency and Local Pessimism Motivates Variety"
Journal of Consumer Research 42(3) 361-377 [Lead Article]

8. Bartels, Daniel and Oleg Urminsky (2015) "To Know and To Care: How Awareness and Valuation of the Future Jointly Shape Consumer Savings and Spending,"
Journal of Consumer Research, 41(6), 1469-1485.
       Press Coverage: "How to Use Your Memory To Boost Your Savings", US News and World Report, February, 2014
       "What your coffee habit is costing you," Capital Ideas Video

7. Urminsky, O., Bartels, D., Giuliano, P., Newman, G., Puntoni, S. and Rips, L. (2014) "Choice and Self: How Synchronic and Diachronic Identity Shape Choices and Decision Making,"
Marketing Letters, 25(3), 281-291
(based on a session at the 9th triennial Invitational Choice Symposium)

6. Orhun, Yesim and Oleg Urminsky (2012) "Conditional Projection: How Own Evaluations Impact Beliefs About Others Whose Choices Are Known,"
Journal of Marketing Research, 50(1), 111-124.
       Press Coverage: "Breaking: Obama Supporters and Romney Supporters May Not Actually Hate Each Other", The Atlantic.com

5. Shen, Luxi and Oleg Urminsky (2012) "Making Sense of Nonsense: The Visual Salience of Units Determines Sensitivity to Magnitude,"
Psychological Science, 24(3), 297-304.

4. Gordon, B. and M. Lovett, R. Shachar, K. Arceneaux, S. Moorthy, M. Peress, A. Rao, S. Sen, D. Soberman, O. Urminsky (2012) "Marketing and Politics: Models, Behavior and Policy Implications,"
Marketing Letters, Apr 2012, Vol. 48, No. 2: 282-295.
(based on a session at the 8th triennial Invitational Choice Symposium)

3. Bartels, Daniel and Oleg Urminsky (2011) "On Intertemporal Selfishness: The Perceived Instability of Identity Underlies Impatient Consumption,"
Journal of Consumer Research, 38 (1), June 2011, 182-198. (Runner-up, 2011 Einhorn New Investigator Award)
       Press Coverage: "Get to Know Yourself", Time Healthnet;
      "In Politics, Live in the Present and Kick Problems to the Future", New York Times, January 2, 2011;
      "It's Academic", Chicago Tribune, February 8, 2011;
      "The Secret of Saving For a Rainy Day", U.S. News and World Report, July 19, 2011;
      "Meet Future You (now be nice): Psychology offers a strange new tactic for keeping your resolutions", Boston Globe, January 4, 2013

2. Urminsky, Oleg and Ran Kivetz (2011), "Scope Insensitivity and the "Mere Token" Effect,"
Journal of Marketing Research Apr 2011, Vol. 48, No. 2: 282-295.

1. Kivetz, Ran, Oleg Urminsky, and Yuhuang Zheng (2006), "The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer Retention,"
Journal of Marketing Research, 43 (1), February, 39-58. (Finalist, 2007 Paul Green Award and 2011 William F. O'Dell Award)
      Press Coverage: Going for the Goal, Capital Ideas, November 2008

Quoted in the Media


Marketing Research Lab