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Oliver Azuara I am a recent PhD with
research interests in labor economics, health economics and applied
econometrics. My dissertation explores how social protection programs affect
migration, informality and marriage. I am currently a postdoctoral fellow at I will be available
for interviews at the 2012 ASSA meetings in |
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Mobile Phone: (617) 671 - 8383 E-mail: oazuara@uchicago.edu
Address: Job market paper "Does Poverty
Alleviation Increase Migration? Evidence from Mexico" What are the long-term effects of conditional cash transfers
(CCTs) on labor and migration decisions? There is scientific evidence that
demonstrates the positive effects of CCTs on nutrition, health and schooling
levels of the poor in the short run. However, there is little evidence on
their long-term effects on labor and migration decisions. The experimental
data is limited for this purpose. In this paper, I examine the short and
long-term effects of Progresa-Oportunidades
on migration using a regression discontinuity design. The paper identifies
the effects of the program among villages with poverty levels close to the
cutoff point of the original eligibility criteria. The estimates show that
the program caused a drop in the population size and changed the gender
composition of Mexican rural villages between 1997 and 2005. The reduction of
males is significantly higher than that of females, a clear sign of the
program’s effect on migration decisions. In those villages where all
households were covered by the program migration resulted in a 10 percentage
point drop in population during this period. |
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