Democracy and Social Science

Social Science 132

Winter Quarter 2004

 

 

Professor: Jeff Grynaviski                                                      Teacher Assistant: Shira Offer

Office: Pick 528                                                                      Email: shira@uchicago.edu

Email: grynaviski@uchicago.edu

Webpage: http://home.uchicago.edu/~grynav

Phone: 773-702-2370                        

 

Course Description

 

This course is designed as an introduction to the core concepts and methods of contemporary social science through a close reading and examination of Anthony Downs’ An Economic Theory of Democracy. The first part of the course will therefore be spent reading Downs with an eye toward two things—his conception of positivist social science and the empirical implications of his theory. The second part of the course will be spent developing a set of tools that will allow you to critically analyze Downs’s work using contemporary tools of social scientific inference (read: statistics).

 

 

Course Assignments

 

Homework Exercises. 30 percent of your grade.

 

The first few weeks of the semester, you will be given a series of assignments (mostly done on the computer) so that you can develop hands-on experience with statistical inference. Due dates will be announced in class.

 

Independent Research Project. 30 percent of your grade.

 

Test one of Downs’ theories. Your paper should be well-written and at least 5 double-spaced pages long. The general guidelines are that you are to briefly introduce one of Downs’ predictions about political behavior; derive a set of testable hypotheses from that theory; identify epistemic relationships most likely using data from the American National Election Studies; apply the technique of multiple regression to test your theory; and discuss your results. That is, apply the scientific method to test Downs’ theory and write-up your results in a manner similar to a lab report. The assignment is due at 5pm the Friday of exam week.

 

Classroom Participation and Attendance. 20 percent of your grade.

 

Final Exam. 20 percent of your grade will be held the last day of classes.

 

 

Class Texts

 

The following books are available for you to purchase at the Seminary Coop Bookstore:

 

            - Allison, Multiple Regression: A Primer

 

            - Booth, Colomb, and Williams, The Craft of Research 2nd ed.

 

            - Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy

 

Any other texts will be available through Regenstein Reserves or online.

 

 

Reading List (subject to change at the instructor’s discretion)

 

January 6.                  Organizational Session

 

 

January 8.                  The Concept of the “Average” Person

 

Stigler, “The Average Man is 168 Years Old.” Statistics on the Table Ch. 2. (reserve)

 

Milton Friedman (1953). “The Methodology of Positive Economics.” Essays in Positive Economics (1953) University of Chicago Press. (reserve)

 

Booth, Part I and II.

 

 

January 13.                Behavioral Assumptions of an Economic Theory of Democracy

 

Downs, Chapters 1-3.

 

Simon, “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1955 (reserve)

 

 

January 15.                Arrow’s Theorem and Social Welfare Functions

 

Downs, Chapter 4.

 

Barry and Hardin Rational Man, Irrational Society, excerpts (reserve)

            - articles by Arrow, Baier, Little, and Plott

 

 

January 20.                Uncertainty, Ideology, and Party Behavior

 

Downs, Chapters 5-10.

 

 

January 22.                Information Costs and Voter Behavior

 

Downs, Chapters 11-16

 

 

January 27.                Measures of Central Tendency

 

HyperStat Online—Chapter 2. Describing Univariate Data

http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html

 

Knoke and Borhrnstedt, Statistics for Social Data Analysis, chapter 2. Reserve. (Optional)

 

 

January 29.                Hypothesis Tests.

 

HyperStat Online-Chapters 9 and 10.1-10.5

http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html

 

Booth, Part III.

 

Knoke and Borhrnstedt, Statistics for Social Data Analysis, chapter 3. Reserve. (Optional)

 

Homework #1. Due February 10, 2004

 

 

February 3-5.             Tables.

 

Knoke and Borhrnstedt, Statistics for Social Data Analysis, chapter 5. Reserve.

                                   

Booth, Part IV.

                                   

Campbell, et al. The American Voter (excerpts). Reserve

 

Homework #2. Due February 19, 2004

 

 

February 9-11.           Correlation.

 

HyperStat Online-Chapter 3

http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html

 

Knoke and Borhrnstedt, Statistics for Social Data Analysis, chapter 6. Reserve. (Optional)

 

Converse, “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics” Reserve

 

Homework #3. Due February 26, 2004

 

 

February 17-19.         Simple Regression

 

Allison. Chapter 5.

 

Burnham, Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics, chapters 1-2. Reserve.

 

 

February 24-March 2. Multiple Regression

 

Allison. Chapter 1-3.

 

Allison, chapters 6-8

 

Aldrich, Why Parties? Chapters 2 and 4. Reserve

 

 

March 4.                     Catch-up, Review, Special Topics

 

 

March 9.                     Final Exam.

 

 

March 19.                   Final Papers Due at 5pm in Grynaviski’s office.

                                    Data set for final paper.

                                    Codebook.