Democracy and Social Science
Social Science 132
Winter Quarter 2003
Professor: Jeff Grynaviski
Office: Pick 528
Email: grynaviski@uchicago.edu
Webpage: http://home.uchicago.edu/~grynav
Phone: 773-702-2370
Course Description
This course is designed as an introduction to the modern tools of social scientific inference (read: statistics) through their application to the study of democratic political systems.
For approximately the first half of the quarter, the bulk of your time in and out of class will be spent learning basic statistical concepts and how to apply those concepts to real data through homework exercises.
For the second half of the quarter, you will learn how these tools shed light on different features of the American political system through classroom readings and your own independent research project.
Course Assignments
Homework Exercises. 30 percent of your grade.
The first few weeks of the semester, you will be given a series of assignments (mostly done on the computer) so that you can develop hands-on experience with statistical inference. Due dates will be announced in class.
Independent Research Project. 30 percent of your grade.
This is what is sounds like. You
are expected to apply the statistical concepts learned in class to some social
scientific phenomenon that interests you. Your paper should be well-written and
at least 5 double-spaced pages long. You must use multiple regression.
Standard ice-dancing criteria will be used. That is, you will be evaluated
based on the appeal of your topic, quality of presentation, the degree of
difficulty, and technical merit. It is due at
Classroom Participation. 20 percent of your grade.
Your class participation grade will be based on two factors.
1) You must show up for class and be prepared.
2) You will give a 15 minute “conference-style” presentation of a chapter from The New American Voter or The Macro Polity as if it were your own research. An acceptable presentation will begin with a statement of the “big question” being addressed, offer a theory about the big question and the hypotheses derived from that theory, the research design used to test those hypotheses (i.e. data and statistical procedure), and the findings.
Take Home Final Exam. 20 percent of your grade.
The Final Exam will most likely be an essay or two that focus on the readings from the second part of the semester.
Style Guidelines
For written assignments, you must obey a handful of easy to understand formatting guidelines. Your assignments must be:
- Typed with a standard 12 point font
- Double-Spaced
- One inch margins on all sides of the paper
If your work does not meet these guidelines, it will not be graded. That means you will get a failing grade.
For class presentations, you should (not must) use these formatting guidelines for a PowerPoint Presentation:
- Small fonts are hard to read, big fonts are easy. This means that good presentations have big fonts so that the audience is able to follow their talk.
- For titles and headings, “Big” means a minimum of 18-20 point fonts.
- For bullet points under a heading, “Big” means a minimum of 14-16 point fonts.
- For tables, you may be able to get away with 12 point fonts, but it is a challenge for the audience.
- Verbose slides are bad. If the audience is reading, they are not paying attention to you. Therefore, your slides should provide an outline for your presentation, not all of the details.
- Additional Benefit: Fewer words allow you to use larger fonts
- On average when I lecture, each slide will provide the focus of attention for approximately 1-2 minutes of time in lecture or 5-10 minutes of class discussion. Plan your presentation accordingly.
Class Texts
The following books are available for you to purchase at the Seminary Coop Bookstore:
- Allison, Multiple Regression: A Primer
- MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson, The Macro Polity
- Miller and Shanks, The New American Voter
Any other texts will be available through Regenstein Reserves.
Reading List
(subject to change at the instructor’s discretion)
January 7. Introduction—The Concept of the “Average” Person
Lecture Notes—Powerpoint
If you don’t have Powerpoint, download the Powerpoint Viewer for Windows.
Basics of Statistical Inference
January 9. Mean and Variance
HyperStat Online—Chapter 2. Describing Univariate Data
http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html
Knoke and Borhrnstedt, Statistics for Social Data Analysis, chapter 2. Reserve.
(Optional)
Lecture 2—PowerPoint
Homework #1. Due
January 14. Hypothesis Tests.
HyperStat Online-Chapters 9 and 10.1-10.5
http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html
Knoke and Borhrnstedt, Statistics for Social Data Analysis, chapter 3. Reserve.
(Optional)
Lecture 3—PowerPoint
January 16. Tables.
Knoke and Borhrnstedt, Statistics for Social Data Analysis, chapter 5. Reserve.
Lecture 4—PowerPoint
Homework #2. Due Tuesday, January 28
January 21. Correlation.
HyperStat Online-Chapter 3
http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html
Knoke and Borhrnstedt, Statistics for Social Data Analysis, chapter 6. Reserve.
(Optional)
Lecture 5—PowerPoint
January 28. Bivariate Regression I (models of causation)
Allison. Chapter 5.
Lecture 6—PowerPoint
Homework #3. Due Tuesday, February 4
January 30. Bivariate Regression II (evaluation and interpretation of bivariate regressions)
Allison. Chapter 5.
Lecture 7—PowerPoint
February 4. Multivariate Regression I (model elaboration and interpretation)
Allison. Chapter 1-3.
Lecture 8—PowerPoint
February 6. Multivariate Regression II (Multicollinearity)
Allison, chapters 6-8
Lecture 9—PowerPoint
February 11. Multivariate Regression III (dummy variables and interaction terms)
Lecture 10—PowerPoint
Homework #4. Due Thursday, February 20
Democracy at the
Micro-Level
February 13. Catch-Up and Intro to Political Behavior
Miller and Shanks, chapters 1 and 2.
Lecture 11—PowerPoint
Begin Class
Presentations
February 18. Class presentations and Special Topics
Miller and Shanks, chapters 3-5
February 20. Class presentations and Special Topics
Miller and Shanks, chapters 6-9
February 25. Class presentations and Special Topics
Miller and Shanks, chapters 10-13
February 27. Class presentations and Special Topics
Miller and Shanks, chapters 14-17
Democracy at the
Macro-Level
March 4. Class presentations and Special Topics
Erikson, Mackuen, and Stimson, chapters 1-5
March 6.Class presentations and Special Topics
Erikson, Mackuen, and Stimson, chapters 6-9
March 11. Catch-up, Wrap-up and Review
Erikson, Mackuen, and Stimson, chapters 10-11
Final Exam.
Due Tuesday March 18 at
Do not download the exam until you are prepared to abstain from all discussion about the class material with friends and classmates.