Vasco Carvalho, PhD Candidate, Economics, University of Chicago

Vasco M. Carvalho

PhD Candidate, Department of Economics,

University of Chicago

On the job market and available

for interviews at the AEA Meetings.

Contacts:

E-mail: carvalho@uchicago.edu

Phone: (1) 773 936 0591

Department of Economics
1126 East 59th St.
Chicago IL 60637

USA

C.V. (in PDF, 2 pages)

Research:

· Aggregate Fluctuations and the Network Structure of Intersectoral Trade

JOB MARKET PAPER, Nov 15th version.

This paper analyzes and models the flow of intermediate inputs across sectors by adopting a network perspective on sectoral interactions. I apply these tools to show how fluctuations in aggregate economic activity can be obtained from independent shocks to individual sectors. First, by interpreting data in detailed input-use matrices through this lens, I characterize the structure of input trade in the U.S. On the demand side, a typical sector relies on a small number of key inputs and sectors are homogeneous in this respect. However, in their role as input-suppliers sectors do differ: many specialized input suppliers coexist alongside general purpose sectors that function as hubs to the economy. The paper then constructs a network model of input-use matrices that can reproduce these connectivity features in the data. In a standard multisector setup, I then use this model of input-use matrices to provide analytical expressions linking the variability in aggregates to the network structure of input trade. I show that the presence of sectoral hubs - by coupling production decisions across the economy - leads to fluctuations in aggregates. Furthermore, I show that this network approach provides a common framework for hitherto opposing arguments on how fast the volatility of aggregates decays with the number of sectoral technologies.

· A Note on Common Trends, Common Cyles and Convergence, (with A.C. Harvey and T. Trimbur)

Journal of Business Economics and Statistics,

January 2007

· Growth, Cycles and Convergence in US Regional Time Series , (with A.C. Harvey)

International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 21(4), p. 667-686.

October, 2005

· Robust-Optimal Fiscal Policy,

May 2005, preliminary draft, University of Chicago.

· Convergence in the trends and cycles of Euro-zone income, (with A.C. Harvey)

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005, vol. 20, (2), pages 275-289.

(and CEPR Discussion Papers #4726).

March, 2005